D.C. Dominoes

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Splits and Caps Daily: Action for Agents

September 29, 2025

📈 Market Move:

Shutdown Showdown

A government shutdown looks all but inevitable on Oct. 1, and while it won’t grind home sales to a halt, it could mess with the vibes of an already shaky housing market.

Here’s the deal:

• Direct hit? Minimal. Fannie, Freddie, HUD, VA keep humming, though maybe slower. Past shutdowns barely dented transactions.

• Indirect hit? Big maybe. If the economy sputters, layoffs loom, or Wall Street throws a tantrum, buyers hit pause. Cheaper mortgage rates don’t matter if you’re worried about losing your job.

• The Fed circus: Powell says “we’ll wing it” based on data… except during a shutdown the government doesn’t publish the data. Some Fed members want three cuts this year, others think mid-2% rates are the real destination.

• Drama alert: Trump’s push to fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook could shatter Fed independence if SCOTUS allows it. That’d be like pulling the referee off the field mid-game.

• Other D.C. moves: FHFA just killed its equitable housing advisory committee, and the SEC is flirting with killing quarterly earnings reports too (because who needs accountability every 90 days?).

Bottom line: The shutdown itself won’t tank real estate, but the uncertainty could freeze buyers already on edge. The Fed’s flying blind, D.C.’s playing political Jenga, and agents? Just keep an eye on rates—sub-6% mortgages might sneak back in, but don’t expect buyers to sprint if the economy feels like it’s circling the drain.

🌟Quote of the Day:

“The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.” — Vince Lombardi

📊🤔 Agent Poll Results

On 9/26, we asked: Mortgage rates are flirting with 11-month lows. What are your clients actually doing?

The results are in!

• A) Refinancing like there’s no tomorrow 💸: 0%

• B) Finally buying that house they’ve been stalking 🏡: 20%

• C) Waiting… because the market is confusing AF ⏳: 60%

• D) Just scrolling Zillow and complaining in group chat 😅: 20%

Sounds about right! Focus where the action is. The others will come around!

🎉 Fun Fact of the Day: 

Going Gladiator: 🏟️ The Colosseum in Rome was once repurposed into apartment housing in the Middle Ages. Forget luxury condos — these had lions.

📚 Book Recommendation:

“Stumbling on Happiness” by Daniel Gilbert — We all think we know what will make us happy—more money, a beach house, maybe an unlimited DoorDash account. Spoiler: we’re usually dead wrong.

Daniel Gilbert, a Harvard psychologist, basically says your brain is a terrible fortune teller when it comes to predicting happiness. You think that dream car or that next deal will light you up forever, but give it a week and you’re back to baseline.

The real kicker? We keep making decisions based on this broken prediction machine. Gilbert shows how our minds constantly trick us, and how understanding that can actually help us build better businesses, better relationships, and better lives.

Why should you care? Because in real estate (and life), chasing happiness is like chasing leads—you can waste years going after the wrong ones if you don’t understand the game.

Key takeaway: Happiness isn’t hiding in the next “win.” It’s built in the small, daily stuff you overlook. Master that, and you stop stumbling.

Your consistency is quietly building a storm.

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