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Fall Fizzle
Sales slump, prices climb, and affordability keeps playing goalie
Splits and Caps Daily: Action for Agents
September 26, 2025
📈 Market Move:
Frustration Fuel
Existing home sales dipped 0.2% in August — small on paper, but big in vibes. We’re still stuck at a 30-year low pace (about 4M annualized sales), even though sales are up slightly year-over-year. Translation: the market’s trying, but it’s jogging with ankle weights.
Mortgage rates inched back up to 6.3% after a short winning streak of declines, though they’re still hanging near 11-month lows. That little drop in rates juiced refis — refinance applications are up 42% YoY — but it hasn’t been enough to spark a fall buying frenzy.
Meanwhile, prices won’t quit: the median home hit $422,600 in August, the 26th straight month of year-over-year gains. And sellers? Many are pulling listings when buyers don’t meet their number, which is keeping inventory tight and affordability painful (99% of U.S. counties are less affordable than their historical norms).
So here’s the setup:
Sales sluggish 🐌
Prices sticky 📈
Rates teasing 🫠
Buyers squeezed 🤏
Until affordability improves — either through rates or prices — don’t expect a big fall rally. The housing market’s still in “hurry up and wait” mode.
🌟Quote of the Day:
“Happiness depends upon ourselves.” — Aristotle
📊🤔 Agent Poll
Mortgage rates are flirting with 11-month lows. What are your clients actually doing? |
🎉 Fun Fact of the Day:
Nice Ice: 🧊 In Finland, people build ice hotels every winter, then watch them melt away in spring. Real estate with an expiration date.
📚 Book Recommendation:
“Negotiating the Impossible” by Deepak Malhotra — Think negotiating is just for boardrooms and car dealerships? Think again. Malhotra flips the script, showing that the “impossible” deals—hostage situations, epic business standoffs, even your stubborn client who won’t budge on price—are all solvable if you rethink the game.
This isn’t fluff. It’s a playbook for turning “no way” into “okay, maybe” and walking out with more than you expected. If you’re an agent tired of losing deals to competing offers or giving in too fast, this book will make you feel like you’ve been negotiating with cheat codes all along.
💡 Takeaway: Stop assuming a “no” is final. Often, it’s just the start of the negotiation.
One step closer, one step stronger.
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